Sweden is preparing its people for the possibility of war. Should the UK do the same?

Every year the Folk och Försvar (Society and Defence) conference is held in Sweden bringing together the defence and security policy community. Most years the conference would, generally speaking, only attract those with a special interest in the field and certainly would not cause reverberations internationally. This year’s conference was different though...  

After having shown three brutal pictures from the war in Ukraine, the Swedish defence chief General Byden asked “Do you think this could be Sweden [next]?”. Similarly, the Minister for civil defence Bohlin, directing his attention to all Swedes, then posed the question: “Who are you if war comes?” Furthermore, Bohlin urged private citizens who had not yet joined a voluntary defence organization to “get moving!”.  

Domestically, the reaction was almost immediate. Some reacted quite negatively at what they considered to be unnecessary fearmongering. Former Swedish Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, commented “It’s not as if war is just outside the door”. Mental health charities also noted with alarm that they were being inundated by young Swedes who were calling because they were worried about the prospect of war.  

However, for the most part in Sweden, there has been a realization that the chilling warning conveyed by its government and armed forces, needs to be heeded. War may not be right at Sweden’s doorstep, but Europe’s security environment has changed drastically over the last two years putting smaller and more vulnerable states like Sweden at a far greater risk.  

In comparison to the other the Nordic countries (namely Finland) Sweden, after the Cold War, has had a more relaxed relationship to defence policy, choosing to repeatedly cut defence spending. However, now Sweden is joining NATO and boosting its defence budget by 30% this year to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP target.   

The Nordic countries now all take their defence policies quite seriously through so called “whole-of-society” approaches. This approach involves building national resilience through considerable civilian defence preparations in coordination and combination with military conscription which permits quick large-scale mobilization.   

Following the Folk och Försvar conference, similar discussions concerning whole-of-society approaches are now taking place in the UK. Recently, General Patrick Sanders, the British Army’s Chief of the General Staff, argued that the UK should follow Sweden and take “preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing”. Others in the UK, like General Richard Sheriff, have called for conscription to be possibly reintroduced like in Sweden. 

The UK has not had conscription since 1960 and it is probably one step too far to suggest its reintroduction currently. Due to Britain’s geographic position, its security situation is not as acute as any of the Nordic countries. However, that does not mean that there is nothing to be learned from the Swedish and Nordic strategy. Whilst Sweden is increasing its troop numbers, the UK is set to reduce its armed forces to 73,000. This decision should be hastily reversed to avoid a situation where the armed forces are severely understaffed. Finally, the UK government could also make a greater effort to signal to its own people the severity of the threat environment that we currently face. 

References 

Bohlin, Carl Oskar. 2024. "Speech by Minister for Civil Defence Carl-Oskar Bohlin at Folk och Försvars annual national conference in Sälen on the 7th of January 2024." Government of Sweden . January 7. https://www.government.se/speeches/2024/01/speech-by-minister-for-civil-defence-carl-oskar-bohlin-at-folk-och-forsvars-annual-national-conference-in-salen-on-the-7th-of-january-2024/. 

2024. "Magdalena Andersson: Kriget står inte för dörren." Sveriges Radio. January 9. https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/magdalena-andersson-kriget-star-inte-for-dorren. 

2023. "Military budget initiatives for 2024." Government of Sweden . September 22. https://www.government.se/articles/2023/09/military-budget-initiatives-for-2024/. 

Smith, Matthew. 2024. "More than a third of under-40s would refuse conscription in the event of a world war." YouGov. January 26. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48473-more-than-a-third-of-under-40s-would-refuse-conscription-in-the-event-of-a-world-war. 

Winther, James Kenneth. 2020. "Back to the future? Nordic total defence concepts." Defence Studies 61-81.