Unravelling Connections: The Israel-Hamas Conflict's Influences on the War in Ukraine
The resurgence of the Israel-Palestine conflict, much like Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has produced global repercussions. Competing narratives surrounding Israel's efforts to dismantle Hamas and the impact on civilians caught in the crossfire have polarized international public opinion, galvanizing divisions between the West and the Global South – as well as within domestic audiences themselves. Many of these views had already been brought into relief by reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a new conflict in the Middle East has only served to amplify their role in global polarization. This divisive environment complicates Ukraine’s recent efforts to rally support against Russian aggression, and thus more careful messaging from Ukrainian and Western leaders will prove vital in the near to intermediate term.
Ukraine’s relationship with Israel has enjoyed a complex history marked by periods of tension. Notably, Ukraine has supported UN resolutions condemning Israeli occupation of Palestinian land. Ukraine has also criticised Israel’s lukewarm responses to past Russian aggression, such as when Israel refused to directly condemn Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Israel has offered more direct condemnation of Russia’s actions since the 2022 full-scale invasion, albeit following some diplomatic pressure from the United States. Nevertheless, the Netanyahu government has diverged from its Western counterparts by declining to enact economic sanctions against Russia and withholding crucial defensive weaponry, including air defense systems, much to the dismay of the Ukrainian government.
Under the constant threat of Russian air attacks, Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts since the start of the war have sought to change this dynamic. In the wake of large-scale airstrikes on December 29th, Ukraine has further recentered its focus on addressing this vulnerability. According to observers, December 29th 2023 stands out as one of the most substantial Russian airstrikes since the beginning of the conflict, resulting in the deaths of over 30 Ukrainian civilians and injuring at least 160 others. Ukrainian officials have recognized the crucial role that Israel’s air defense capabilities could play in stopping attacks of this scope in the future, and thus much of Ukraine’s focus has been targeted toward convincing the Israeli government to authorize the transfer of these systems. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the outbreak of war in the Middle East has challenged this possibility.
Following the October 7th attack by Hamas militants, Ukraine initially echoed global sentiments by condemning the brutality of Hamas and expressing solidarity with Israel. However, in the more than 100 days that followed, the actions of the Israel Defense Forces during their subsequent military operations against Hamas have faced intense international scrutiny, particularly from the Global South. While Israel's Western allies, particularly the United States, continue to offer direct support, non-Western nations emphasize what they perceive as indiscriminate bombing of civilians and collective punishment of Palestinians by Israeli security forces. Recent endeavors by South Africa to bring charges of genocide against Israel before the International Court of Justice, despite Western criticism, underscore the deepening rift. In the backdrop of Ukraine's substantial diplomatic efforts to reshape perspectives in the Global South, the pervasive global polarization has severely constrained the options available to Ukraine's foreign ministry to approach the issue effectively.
To navigate this dilemma, Ukraine will need to walk a fine line between two extremes. On one hand, if Ukraine adopts an official position that is too permissive of Israel’s actions, it will provide further justification for non-Western countries to defer support for Ukraine and measures to oppose Russia. Conversely, if Ukraine adopts a position that is too critical of Israel, it will undermine any diplomatic progress made toward expanding intelligence sharing initiatives and beginning defensive weapons transfers between the countries. Moreover, an anti-Israel position would likely serve as an affront to Ukraine’s central Western backers, specifically the United States, and may further embolden voices calling to draw down any further aid to Ukraine. Given the uncertainties surrouding the forthcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential election, right-wing candidates may see electoral benefit in propogating these isolationist views. Regardless of Ukraine's future official stance, the risk of prolonged conflict in the Middle East has the effect of diverting Western attention away from Ukraine. Such a conflict will undoubtedly hinder Israel's capacity to supply the urgently needed air defense capabilities to Ukraine in the foreseeable future, if the possibility of such an agreement was ever on the table.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East may impose significant challenges to Ukraine’s national security interests, however, this does not mean that Russia stands to benefit entirely. Russia has transformed into one of Israel's most vocal critics, forging a closer alignment with Iran. This contrasts with Putin's established foreign policy doctrine in the Middle East, which traditionally aimed to navigate a delicate balance between conflicting factions. Putin’s simultaneous engagement with both the Netanyahu government and Tehran embodies this approach, and since October 7th, has now unraveled in favor of Iran. This marks a diminishing of Russia's regional influence, as the escalation of more kinetic conflicts forces Russia to choose sides, resulting in a loss of influence with one faction over another. Additionally, Russia may soon face limitations in its ability to intervene in support of regional partners, such as Syrian President Bashir al-Assad, in the event of a broader war. Russia’s abandonment of Nagorno-Karabakh reflects a similar trend in another region, underscoring how its capacity to project military power is hindered by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Ukraine may not be a major international player in the Middle East, but the looming threat of prolonged conflict in the region has the potential to divert attention from Western supporters, hindering the crucial support Ukraine urgently requires. Ukraine’s approach to the issue will also translate to foreign perceptions of its war with Russia, as a consequence of the deepening global polarization resulting from the Israel-Hamas War. Therefore, it is advisable to closely monitor Ukraine's approach to the matter in the short to intermediate term, as the potential repercussions on the global dynamics surrounding the war in Ukraine may extend beyond what can presently be foreseen.
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