Schrodinger's Putin

Over the last two years many (amateur) Kremlinologists have gone into overdrive. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the various developments that followed it have provided grounds for endless speculation online about a seemingly constant stream of updates, signs, and rumours. Many of these have circled around a central theme of Vladimir Putin’s ability to run the country – from rumours of partisan rebellions, to Prigozhin’s abortive mutiny, Putin might be losing his grip (that is, when he isn’t gripping onto tables so tightly that he clearly has Parkinson’s). Over the last few months these have escalated to their logical conclusion – Vladimir Putin is not in control of Russia and its war, because he is already dead. 

Rumours of Putin’s death were denied as “absurd” by Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov on the 24th of October (though of course, he would say that) shortly after a telegram post by Valerii Solovyov claiming Putin had died of a heart attack. Quite why Putin’s death would be followed by a doppelganger taking his place remains unclear. While these rumours can be good fun (Valery Gerasimov brought some cheer to the new year for many by allegedly being killed in Crimea) it would be foolish to see them as anything more. It is true that we know very little about Putin’s health – he may well use body doubles, and be seriously ill – but there is almost no way of verifying this. More importantly, it does not matter.  

With Putin’s Kremlin, as with Schrodinger’s cat, there is no way of knowing what is going on inside. In practise Putin’s death matters only as much as it changes the existing situation. While it may be fun to imagine his demise, it is unclear what it would achieve in terms of substantive change. While it would of course be imprudent to fail to consider what will happen after his death, without the kind of information only available to various initialised agencies this can only really amount to speculative guesswork which, while entertaining, serves little helpful purpose. We do not know who will lead Russia after Putin, and all those currently in a position to replace him are unlikely to make significant changes to Russian foreign policy, including the war in Ukraine. As gratifying a symbol as his death might be, to obsess over it misunderstands the fundamental problems actually facing Russia (and indeed Ukraine). 

In 2024 Western foreign policy towards Russia is totally centred on the war in Ukraine, and is almost entirely carried out through two techniques– aid and support to Ukraine, and sanctions against Russia. The distraction of Vladimir Putin’s putative health problems allows focus to be drawn from these, diverting attention from the only methods we have to actually improve the situation, and proliferating the misperception that Putin is the only obstacle preventing the favourable resolution of the war. Whether Putin is dead or alive should make no difference to current Western policy, which must seek to end the war in Ukraine’s favour by opposing Russia’s interests.  

Much as Erwin Schrodinger originally devised the ‘Schrodinger’s cat’ thought experiment to undermine what he saw as ridiculous in quantum mechanics, so this new ‘Schrodinger’s Putin’ highlights the ridiculousness of the suggestion that all that needs to be done to resolve our current problems with Russia is wait for Putin’s inevitable death. The choice facing the West is not between standing up to Putin or waiting for him to die, but between standing up to Russia or allowing its criminality to continue.  

References
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/10/27/kreml-prizval-ne-verit-v-soobscheniya-o-smerti-putina-a111352