Examining Energy and Water Security in Central Asia: The Nexus Between Environmental and Energy Concerns.

The Amu Darya and the Syr Darya are major rivers in Central Asia which provide vast amounts of water for agriculture (growing crops such as cotton and rice), and the opportunity to develop large scale hydropower infrastructure for countries mainly upstream. These rivers have historically sustained the region, used as a vital asset to support the region’s population which has been characterised by the scarcity of water resources caused by Soviet water mismanagement coupled with arid climate conditions. Each river can trace its source to the mountainous regions of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which has created concerns for countries downstream (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) over the increased probability for accidental water contamination if these countries pursue nuclear energy.  

Kyrgyzstan, one of the two countries upstream, has been considering nuclear power since 2022 as a means to sustain the growing energy needs of the population. The ‘International Energy Agency’ has documented Kyrgyzstan as having an outdated and inefficient energy system. Furthermore, the country has been “susceptible to seasonal and weather-related fluctuations” caused by low water flows due to high demand in the winter months. This year, Rosatom, Russia’s largest energy company, agreed to build more Hydroelectric plants (HPP) for Kyrgyzstan, highlighting Russia’s continued dominance in energy developments across the region. HPP’s are more efficient than nuclear power plants in producing electricity, however, provide greater use for countries with large amounts of flowing water. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan’s upstream position has allowed the government to explore alternative means to nuclear power. However, these hydroelectric plants use a significant amount of water, potentially hindering countries elsewhere in the region from developing and modernising their own energy facilities. On February 9th of this year, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Energy Minister, Sabyrbek Sultanbekov, spoke about a potential shift towards nuclear power, exploring the adoption of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). As mentioned in a previous article of mine, SMRs could facilitate a positive shift for energy technologies due to being less reliant on water resources for core stability. For a region with scarce water supplies, this could reduce each country's reliability on water resources for energy production therefore facilitating an equal share of water between all countries in Central Asia, helping to reduce regular occurrences of ‘water wars’ in the region.  

The downstream country of Kazakhstan is the world’s largest extractor of uranium, a metal which is most commonly used by nuclear power stations to create energy. China has been a major importer for Kazakhstan’s uranium since the early 2000’s, with the country now supplying two thirds of all uranium used in China. Kazakhstan has never built a nuclear facility, with the topic of nuclear energy viewed as a taboo by many citizens. As mentioned by Max Overloeper in his ‘Atomic Steppe’ book review, various Soviet testing campaigns lead to dangerous health consequences for localities of the Semipalatinsk test site. However, as modern nuclear production has become safer, Kazakhstan must look towards its uptake of nuclear power to align itself with global carbon neutral ambitions. 

Hydropower plants’ energy outputs are significantly hindered as capacity is controlled to allow for more water irrigation for the nation's agricultural needs. Therefore, Kazakhstan still needs to heavily rely on fossil fuels for producing energy, with the country far away from reducing carbon emission levels. The CEO of the Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants LLP (KNPP), Timor Zhantikin, believes the country’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 is possible through the implementation of SMR’s and other renewable energy resources. As a downstream country, water resources can often be scarce due to poor management from irrigation systems. Small Modular Reactors use substantially less water than standard nuclear power stations, ensuring water levels across the region are unharmed from adverse effects of the nuclear power industry. Although some critics believe Russia’s takeover of the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant (ZHPP) signifies construction of nuclear power facilities must be avoided in the region due to external vulnerabilities, Kazakhstan’s geographical downstream position, coupled with significant uranium reserves, will project the nation closer to reaching their 2060 carbon zero target sooner.