Unraveling Connections: Putin’s Purges; a New Approach to the Ukraine War?

Amid a somewhat favorable new offensive in northern Ukraine, Vladimir Putin appears emboldened to engage in domestic political maneuvering — even against those seen as his loyalists. Accordingly, Putin’s fifth presidential term has commenced with a historic reshuffling of senior defense personnel. Recent weeks have seen the dismissal of some of the highest-ranking, longest-serving military officials closest to Putin, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Other defense officials have been met with arrests for corruption and bribery, further signaling the Kremlin’s intent to hold those deemed responsible for Russia’s poor performance accountable. Nevertheless, the impact of these high-level leadership changes on the future trajectory of the war remains uncertain. 

At the time of writing, Putin’s purge of the defense ministry has expanded to include Defense Minister Shoigu, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, Lt. General Yuri Kuznetsov, Lt. General Vadim Shamarin, and Maj. General Ivan Popov. After more than a decade of serving as Defense Minister, Shoigu was moved to the Russian Security Council — limiting his control over the federal purse. Only weeks before Shoigu’s removal, his deputy, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on charges of accepting bribes. On May 14th, Lt. General Kuznetsov, head of the defense ministry’s personnel department, was likewise arrested on charges of “large scale bribery”. Former deputy chair of the general staff, Lt. General Shamarin, has also been detained on similar charges. Lastly, Maj. General Ivan Popov, the former commander of Russia’s 58th army, has remained in custody under allegations of fraud. While serving as commanding officer of the 58th army, Popov was well-liked by his subordinates for speaking ‘truth to power’ about the dire situation on the ground, though it is clear his popularity did not extend to the Kremlin. Thus far, Russia’s senior uniformed officer, Valery Gerasimov, has remained unaffected by Putin’s personnel changes. Nonetheless, the decision to remove a high-ranking loyalist such as Shoigu is significant as it signals a paradigm shift both in Putin’s political reality and war aims. 

It is reasonable to question the timing of Putin's move and his use of corruption accusations to address leadership challenges. After all, corruption is not merely a characteristic of the Russian state but an ingrained feature, especially within its defense apparatus. According to Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index, Russia ranks 141st globally, the lowest of any country on the European continent. Under Putin’s stewardship, and even since the start of the war in Ukraine, corruption levels have only increased. Within the Defense Ministry, corruption and kickbacks have been rampant, only further illustrated by Russia’s wartime failures. It is estimated that over the past twenty years, upwards of one fifth of its defense modernization expenditures have been lost to corruption and theft. Equipment failures and technological shortcomings have shown through as the war has dragged on, which undoubtedly are influenced by this legacy of corruption and dysfunction. Moreover, Putin’s “partial” mobilization of forces only further exemplified the role of corruption, as wealthier families paid bribes to shield their children from the draft as poorer, less healthy, and older individuals took their place — further hampering the efficiency of Russia’s military forces. 

The subpar battlefield results, logistical challenges, and allegations of corruption, which formed the foundation of Wagner mercenary group commander Yevgeny Prigozhin’s frequent denouncements of the Russian MoD, persisted until his death in 2023. Accordingly, though Prigozhin’s march on Moscow proved a bridge too far for Putin, his grievances with Shoigu appear to have had merit. Though Russia’s shortcomings became readily apparent early on, a personnel shakeup may have been seen as too risky for Putin with his military on the defensive. History has demonstrated, particularly with the case of Prigozhin's assassination, that Putin is inclined to postpone his maneuvers until the most opportune moment arises. While the preceding two years had seen little in the way of so-called ‘anti-corruption’ arrests within the Russian MoD, Putin’s reelection and recent battlefield successes appear to have provided a clear opportunity to move against those seen as culpable for Russia’s failings thus far.  

Most significantly, the decision to replace long-serving defense minister Shoigu with Andrei Belousov, a longtime economic advisor to Putin with no prior military experience, may signal a change in Russia’s wartime approach. Despite his limited military background, Belousov has been a vocal proponent of advancing Russia’s drone industry for wartime applications. This advocacy is poised to become a pivotal aspect of any policy adjustments he might introduce concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, Belousov’s experience as a technocrat and an economist may be more suitable for improving Russia’s defense production, signaling Putin’s belief that the war in Ukraine may be won by attritional means. It remains unclear as to how, or if, Belousov will achieve this ambition.  

While the purported anti-corruption arrests may generate political support for Putin, the true significance lies in how extensive personnel changes at the highest levels of Russia's defense ministry will influence the ongoing conflict. Putin's apparent inclination towards an attritional strategy in the war may mitigate concerns regarding conflict escalation should the Russian military attempt a breakthrough in northern Ukraine. Nonetheless, it is advisable for observers of the conflict to closely track any official policy adjustments announced by the Russian defense ministry in the coming weeks to gain a clearer understanding of how these changes are being implemented.