Kim and Putin’s Day Out
Putin's latest attempt at global outreach took shape last month with his first visit to North Korea in twenty-four years, driven by his need for more allies and munitions to support his ongoing military quagmire in Ukraine. The two dictators met in Pyongyang, where streets were adorned with Russian flags and portraits of Putin.
After signing a formal agreement to deepen security relations between the two countries, the day's activities included hugs, gift-giving, and an open-top limousine ride. The two were seen laughing as they took turns driving the Russian-made Aurus limousine around the Kumsusan Residence in Pyongyang, a vehicle that Putin later gifted to Kim. It is likely that Kim was not informed that many parts used in the assembly of the vehicle originated from South Korea, the hermit kingdom’s “primary foe”. While some details of their new arrangement remain unclear, the move has raised concerns in the West as well as seemingly in China for its broader implications.
The mutual defense agreement between the two countries marks a significant detraction from post-Cold War Russo-North Korean relations. According to the portrayal offered by both leaders following the deal's signing, the arrangement shaped a major upgrade in relations to entail security, trade, investment, cultural, and humanitarian ties. In addition, Putin remarked that the countries would endeavor to create trade and payment systems “that are not controlled by the West” and jointly oppose the Western sanctions regime.
Russia’s move to enlist North Korean support can be seen as emblematic of Russia’s newfound pariah status, which has complicated its ability to maintain its attritional war. North Korea, often mocked for its dependence on outdated and frequently defective Soviet-era weapons like artillery shells, appears to possess exactly what Putin urgently needs. In exchange for North Korean material support, Western observers believe that the Kremlin may be authorizing the transfer of critical military technologies and aid, potentially escalating the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Just a few months prior, Russia utilized its veto power at the U.N. Security Council to dissolve a panel of U.N. experts who had been responsible for enforcing sanctions designed to impede North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
It is also believed that North Korea’s move toward Russia has drawn some frustration from their Chinese neighbors to the north. North Korea has long been within China's geopolitical sphere, but its strengthening ties with Russia may foster a growing sense of independence from Beijing. This newfound autonomy could embolden the Korean dictator to conduct additional missile tests, further destabilizing the region. However, China remains a key power broker between Russia and North Korea, and its dominant influence will likely determine the extent of this deepening relationship. China has become a lifeline for Russia amidst the war in Ukraine, and it will likely share its concerns with the Kremlin to set these boundaries.
Kim and Putin's day in Pyongyang certainly provided some meme-worthy moments and comedic reactions on Twitter (now X), but it more significantly highlights the shifting power dynamics between China and Russia. Russia's atmospheric decline to persona non grata on the international stage has forced it to seek assistance from lowly North Korea, while China now possesses the leverage to set the bounds of even that relationship. Observing the relationship between Russia, China, and North Korea in the coming months will provide valuable insights into the evolving power dynamics and Russia's ability to sustain its current wartime trajectory.
